Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
