Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
